The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Atlanta Dream v Washington Mystics

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: Atlanta Dream 72–83 Washington Mystics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Dream (Local)

Prediction 70.18%1.43fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.20%70.05%70.18%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.3875.19%73.66%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Mystics (Visit)

Prediction 29.82%3.35fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%29.95%29.82%30.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.143.2033.33%31.90%31.85%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Dream (Local): 70.18%; Washington Mystics (Visit): 29.82%. For Atlanta Dream (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.38, with an expected value of -3.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.54%E -2.43%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-01 18:33
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.54%E -2.43%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-01 18:34
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.54%E -2.43%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.56%E -3.35%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.56%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 15:35
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.56%E -3.35%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.56%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 15:35
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -5.96%E -4.45%K -17.54%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -5.16%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 15:25
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.56%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 20:24
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.53%E -3.51%K -5.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-01 16:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-05-03 18:00
ProphetX◎1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%7.8%2026-05-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%8.0%2026-05-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%8.0%2026-05-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%8.0%2026-05-03 18:45