The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Dream (Local)

Prediction 58.23%1.72fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -6.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.99%58.23%58.23%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.631.6563.69%61.86%61.35%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Valkyries (Visit)

Prediction 41.77%2.39fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%41.77%41.77%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.272.252.3044.44%44.12%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Dream (Local): 58.23%; Golden State Valkyries (Visit): 41.77%. For Atlanta Dream (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -3.92%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.92%E -2.38%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.92%E -1.71%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 02:55
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.09%E -3.12%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 02:59
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.58%E -5.47%K -15.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%3.2%2026-10-20 03:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-20 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-20 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-20 02:35