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UCLA Bruins v USC Trojans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
UCLA Bruins (Local)
Prediction 72.13%1.39fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -9.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.31%72.33%71.89%74.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.321.3478.13%76.06%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
USC Trojans (Visit)
Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV +3.13%
Edge +0.846%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.85%27.67%28.11%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.353.7031.75%29.57%29.85%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCLA Bruins (Local): 72.13%; USC Trojans (Visit): 27.87%. For USC Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -6.96%E -5.39%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +3.13%E +0.846%K +1.16%G +0.036% | 4.5% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV +1.74%E +0.476%K +0.656%G +0.011% | 3.7% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +1.74%E +0.476%K +0.656%G +0.011% | 4.3% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV +1.18%E +0.325%K +0.449%G +0.005% | 3.9% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV +1.18%E +0.325%K +0.449%G +0.005% | 3.9% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +0.344%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +0.344%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.96%E -5.39%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.44%E -0.698%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.68%E -6.00%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -3.84%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.91%EV -3.35%E -2.50%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.09%EV -4.39%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.35%E -2.50%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.68%EV -3.35%E -2.50%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.32%EV -9.97%E -3.09%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.81%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.24%E -4.80%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.81%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -12.20%E -3.87%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-25 04:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 73.08% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.92% | -0.1% | 2026-02-25 03:59 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.5% | 2026-02-25 04:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 2.1% | 2026-02-25 04:09 |