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Texas State Bobcats v Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Texas State Bobcats (Local)
Prediction 54.08%1.85fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.09%54.26%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.771.8058.82%56.80%56.50%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit)
Prediction 45.92%2.18fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%45.91%45.74%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.052.052.1550.00%48.68%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 54.08%; Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit): 45.92%. For Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.94%E -2.39%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 21:33 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.32%E -3.10%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.32%E -3.10%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.20%E -1.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.32%E -3.10%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 21:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 21:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 21:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -4.48%E -2.15%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.24%E -3.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -7.24%E -3.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.82%E -2.74%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.65%E -1.25%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 22:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.82%E -2.74%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.65%E -1.25%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 22:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.82%E -2.74%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.65%E -1.25%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 22:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.82%E -2.74%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 21:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.27%E -0.590%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.56%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.45%E -3.73%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 21:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.45%E -3.73%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 21:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.45%E -3.73%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 21:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.45%E -3.73%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 12:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.45%E -3.73%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -6.99%E -4.06%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -6.32%E -3.10%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.53%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 21:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.07%E -4.75%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.94%E -2.39%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 22:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.07%E -4.75%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.07%E -4.75%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-06 21:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05% | -0.0% | 2026-03-06 22:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Novig◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.29% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.71% | 1.8% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |