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Texas State Bobcats v Appalachian St Mountaineers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Texas State Bobcats (Local)
Prediction 48.73%2.05fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%48.78%48.83%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.942.0054.64%51.83%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit)
Prediction 51.27%1.95fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.22%51.17%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.851.9157.80%54.08%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 48.73%; Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit): 51.27%. For Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -2.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.53%E -1.27%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-27 21:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.53%E -1.27%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-27 18:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -2.53%E -1.27%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -11.31%E -6.54%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-27 17:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.48%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 00:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.48%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.64%E -2.50%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.48%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.64%E -2.50%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 19:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 17:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 18:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-27 17:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.72%E -4.29%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-27 23:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -8.23%E -4.60%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 18:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.46%E -2.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -2.08%E -1.09%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.46%E -2.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.64%E -2.50%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.46%E -2.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.46%E -2.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.94%E -3.08%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.94%E -3.08%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-27 19:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.13%E -2.21%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 22:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.72%E -4.29%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-27 17:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.72%E -4.29%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-27 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.08%E -1.09%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-27 17:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.08%E -1.09%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-27 16:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 00:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 00:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.16%E -2.79%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 00:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -6.69%E -3.68%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 00:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.59%E -1.36%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 17:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.59%E -1.36%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.59%E -1.36%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 16:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-27 17:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 00:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-27 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.18%E -3.38%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-27 17:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 48.77% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 51.23% | -1.4% | 2026-02-28 00:34 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-02-28 00:34 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| Novig◎ | 2.03I 49.26%NM 48.74% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.26% | 1.1% | 2026-02-28 00:52 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.98% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.02% | 1.6% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |