Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Redhawks v St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 02:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 56.30%1.78fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%56.26%56.33%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.681.7461.73%59.74%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Visit)

Prediction 43.70%2.29fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.74%43.67%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.152.152.2548.08%46.45%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Redhawks (Local): 56.30%; St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Visit): 43.70%. For St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.03%E -1.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.05%E -2.81%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-18 01:59
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.60%E -1.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -6.05%E -2.81%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 01:59
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-18 02:00
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.68%E -0.748%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-18 02:00
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.99%E -1.35%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-18 02:00
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.74%E -2.17%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 02:00
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.99%E -1.35%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-18 02:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.05%E -2.81%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-18 02:00
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.05%E -2.81%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-18 02:00
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -7.36%E -3.47%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 02:00
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.49%E -3.03%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 02:00
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -7.36%E -3.47%K -6.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-18 01:59
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -7.36%E -3.47%K -6.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-18 01:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 02:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 02:00
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 02:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -9.11%E -4.38%K -8.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-18 01:59
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.79%E -5.43%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.77I 56.50%NM 55.53%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.47%1.7%2026-03-18 01:59
Novig1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-03-18 02:00
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-03-18 02:00
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%2.2%2026-03-18 02:00
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%2.3%2026-03-18 02:00