Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions v Mercyhurst Lakers

2026-11-12 23:30 UTC — NCAAB

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 94.47%1.06fair odd

EV -3.64%

Edge -3.57%

Kelly -182.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.31%94.27%94.65%95.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.02100.00%98.81%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 5.53%18.09fair odd

EV +27.18%

Edge +1.18%

Kelly +1.24%

Growth +0.336%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

4.25%5.73%5.35%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0016.0916.3823.008.33%6.22%6.11%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 94.47%; Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit): 5.53%. For Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.09. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 23.00, producing a positive expected value of +27.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.64%E -3.57%K -182.00%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +27.18%E +1.18%K +1.24%G +0.336%	2.4%	2026-11-12 00:00
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +16.12%E +0.767%K +0.806%G +0.130%	3.8%	2026-11-11 22:35
DraftKings🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.64%E -3.57%K -182.00%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +5.06%E +0.266%K +0.281%G +0.014%	3.3%	2026-11-12 01:15
Caesars🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +5.06%E +0.266%K +0.281%G +0.014%	4.3%	2026-11-12 01:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.00%E -0.353%K -0.375%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-11 22:35
888sport🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.00%E -0.353%K -0.375%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-12 00:00
1xBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.00%E -0.353%K -0.375%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-11 22:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.00%E -0.353%K -0.375%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-12 00:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.00%E -0.353%K -0.375%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-12 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.31%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	16.75I 5.97%NM 5.69%EV -7.38%E -0.441%K -0.469%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-11 22:44
Bet Right🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.53%E -0.721%K -0.769%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-11 22:44
BetMGM🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.64%E -3.57%K -182.00%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -17.06%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-12 01:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.06%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-12 01:10
Coral🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.06%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-12 01:10
Neds🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.64%E -3.57%K -182.00%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -28.12%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-12 01:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.64%E -3.57%K -182.00%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -28.12%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-12 01:10
SportsBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -28.12%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-11 22:35
picklebet_au🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -28.12%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-12 00:00
BoyleSports🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.46%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -28.12%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-11 23:59
Betsson🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -5.53%E -5.53%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -33.65%E -2.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-11-12 01:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99%	0.2%	2026-11-11 22:40
Novig◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 95.29%	20.83I 4.80%NM 4.71%	1.9%	2026-11-12 01:45
Polymarket◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 95.10%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.90%	2.1%	2026-11-12 01:45
ProphetX◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%	7.0%	2026-11-12 01:30

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