Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Virginia Tech Hokies

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 01:47 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 76.15%1.31fair odd

EV -0.240%

Edge -0.183%

Kelly -0.773%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.07%76.13%76.25%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.221.221.3190.91%81.99%81.97%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit)

Prediction 23.85%4.19fair odd

EV +31.16%

Edge +5.67%

Kelly +6.92%

Growth +2.16%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.92%23.87%23.75%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.404.114.005.5029.41%24.32%25.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 76.15%; Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit): 23.85%. For Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Virgin Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -14.71%E -13.13%K -122.57%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +31.16%E +5.67%K +6.92%G +2.16%	7.5%	2026-03-01 01:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -14.71%E -13.13%K -122.57%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +31.16%E +5.67%K +6.92%G +2.16%	7.5%	2026-03-01 01:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -16.23%E -14.76%K -162.32%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV +28.77%E +5.33%K +6.54%G +1.88%	9.4%	2026-03-01 01:44
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.38%E -7.88%K -49.36%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +9.70%E +2.11%K +2.69%G +0.261%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
Unibet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.38%E -7.88%K -49.36%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +9.70%E +2.11%K +2.69%G +0.261%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
ATG (SE)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.38%E -7.88%K -49.36%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +9.70%E +2.11%K +2.69%G +0.261%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
Svenska Spel🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.38%E -7.88%K -49.36%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +9.70%E +2.11%K +2.69%G +0.261%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
betPARX🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.38%E -7.88%K -49.36%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +9.70%E +2.11%K +2.69%G +0.261%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
Caesars🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.62%E -7.18%K -43.08%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +7.31%E +1.62%K +2.09%G +0.153%	5.6%	2026-03-01 01:44
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -10.14%E -8.59%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +4.93%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%	7.5%	2026-03-01 01:44
TABtouch🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -10.14%E -8.59%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +4.93%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%	7.5%	2026-03-01 01:44
BetRivers🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -10.90%E -9.32%K -64.12%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV +4.93%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%	8.2%	2026-03-01 01:44
LeoVegas🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -10.90%E -9.32%K -64.12%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV +3.74%E +0.859%K +1.11%G +0.042%	8.5%	2026-03-01 01:44
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -7.86%E -6.49%K -37.40%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV +2.54%E +0.591%K +0.771%G +0.020%	5.9%	2026-03-01 01:44
TAB🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -10.14%E -8.59%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +2.54%E +0.591%K +0.771%G +0.020%	8.0%	2026-03-01 01:44
Fanatics🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.09%E -5.81%K -32.24%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.23%E -0.543%K -0.718%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-01 01:44
888sport🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -10.14%E -8.59%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -2.23%E -0.543%K -0.718%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-01 01:44
888sport (SE)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -10.14%E -8.59%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -2.23%E -0.543%K -0.718%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-01 01:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.57%E -4.49%K -23.21%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-01 01:43
BoyleSports🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.09%E -5.81%K -32.24%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 01:44
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.57%E -4.49%K -23.21%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.00%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 01:44
Coral🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -8.62%E -7.18%K -43.08%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.00%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-01 01:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.81%E -3.85%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.38%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 01:44
BetMGM🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.29%E -2.59%K -12.17%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
SportsBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.81%E -3.85%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 01:41
Fliff🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -3.29%E -2.59%K -12.17%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -12.96%E -3.55%K -4.89%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-01 01:44
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -0.240%E -0.183%K -0.773%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-01 01:32
LowVig.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -0.240%E -0.183%K -0.773%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-01 01:32
BetUS🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -0.240%E -0.183%K -0.773%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-01 01:39
GTbets🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.52%E -1.97%K -9.02%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-01 01:42
Neds🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.52%E -1.97%K -9.02%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-01 01:38
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.52%E -1.97%K -9.02%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-01 01:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.81%E -3.85%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.15%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 01:44
NordicBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 74.42%EV -7.09%E -5.81%K -32.24%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -15.34%E -4.32%K -6.02%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-03-01 01:44
Betway🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.76%E -1.37%K -6.08%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.54%E -4.72%K -6.61%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-01 01:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.81%E -3.85%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.54%E -4.72%K -6.61%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-01 01:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -4.81%E -3.85%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -18.92%E -5.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-01 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%	0.7%	2026-03-01 01:44
Kalshi◎	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%	4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%	0.9%	2026-03-01 01:44
ProphetX◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%	5.3%	2026-03-01 01:43
Novig◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%	7.6%	2026-03-01 01:44