Language:English
North Carolina Tar Heels v Louisville Cardinals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)
Prediction 37.46%2.67fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.693%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 2.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.21%37.37%37.17%38.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.552.7241.67%39.45%39.22%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Louisville Cardinals (Visit)
Prediction 62.54%1.60fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -4.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.22%62.63%62.83%64.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.521.5669.44%65.93%65.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 37.46%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 62.54%. For North Carolina Tar Heels (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV +1.88%E +0.693%K +1.10%G +0.021% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -7.44%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.738%E -0.279%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.56%E -3.68%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.738%E -0.279%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.56%E -3.68%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-23 23:53 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.738%E -0.279%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.44%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -0.738%E -0.279%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -1.86%E -0.711%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -9.31%E -6.42%K -20.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-23 23:58 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.24%E -0.857%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.68%E -2.39%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.24%E -0.857%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.68%E -2.39%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.61%E -1.00%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.61%E -1.00%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.61%E -1.00%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.36%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-23 23:57 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.43%E -1.56%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.68%E -2.39%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.19%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.19%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.19%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.48%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.44%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.36%E -2.54%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.43%E -1.56%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.36%E -2.54%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.43%E -1.56%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.36%E -2.54%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.36%E -2.54%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.36%E -2.54%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.19%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.23%E -3.36%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.98%E -3.69%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.98%E -3.69%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.98%E -3.69%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.98%E -3.69%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.31%E -2.82%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -9.73%E -4.04%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.94%E -3.25%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.44%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.44%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 1.3% | 2026-02-24 00:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68% | 2.0% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51% | 7.3% | 2026-02-23 23:59 |