Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos v GW Revolutionaries

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos (Local)

Prediction 72.13%1.39fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -7.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.45%72.01%72.31%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.321.321.3578.74%76.03%75.76%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

GW Revolutionaries (Visit)

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%27.99%27.69%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.303.5532.26%29.90%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Mexico Lobos (Local): 72.13%; GW Revolutionaries (Visit): 27.87%. For GW Revolutionaries (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -1.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.62%E -1.94%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.35%E -2.50%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 19:20
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -2.45%E -0.701%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 23:30
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 16:15
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 19:19
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.07%E -3.06%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 23:24
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.06%E -0.299%K -0.416%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -1.90%E -0.539%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 19:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.79%E -3.63%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -1.90%E -0.539%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 19:19
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -2.45%E -0.701%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 16:15
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.67%EV -9.14%E -2.80%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 16:15
Fliff🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.21%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 19:25
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.23%E -4.79%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.23%E -4.79%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.23%E -4.79%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 19:20
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.23%E -4.79%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -13.60%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 19:19
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.95%E -5.39%K -23.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.45%E -0.701%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 04:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -8.40%E -6.61%K -31.09%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.55%EV -6.91%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-03-22 22:55
BetOpenly1.34I 74.63%NM 73.83%3.78I 26.46%NM 26.17%1.1%2026-03-22 23:55
Polymarket1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-03-22 18:40
Novig1.35I 74.07%NM 72.95%3.64I 27.47%NM 27.05%1.5%2026-03-22 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-03-22 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-03-22 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-03-22 23:39
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-22 23:55