Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nevada Wolf Pack v Murray St Racers

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nevada Wolf Pack (Local)

Prediction 77.75%1.29fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.10%77.43%77.76%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.221.2783.33%81.33%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Murray St Racers (Visit)

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd
EV +0.137%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.039%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%22.57%22.24%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.094.004.5027.03%24.44%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nevada Wolf Pack (Local): 77.75%; Murray St Racers (Visit): 22.25%. For Murray St Racers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.137%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.137%E +0.031%K +0.039%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-18 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.137%E +0.031%K +0.039%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-18 22:29
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.50%EV -4.37%E -3.55%K -19.00%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.50%EV -0.085%E -0.019%K -0.024%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 01:40
GTbets🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -0.975%E -0.219%K -0.283%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-18 22:25
Caesars🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -0.975%E -0.219%K -0.283%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-18 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.37%E -3.55%K -19.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.09%E -0.475%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 01:40
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.59%E -2.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.31%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-18 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -3.59%E -2.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -7.65%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 22:40
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.70%E -5.59%K -33.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.76%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 01:45
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -1.26%E -0.993%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-18 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.82%E -2.25%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 22:25
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.82%E -2.25%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 22:25
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 22:40
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 10:45
Fliff🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 22:40
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -14.33%E -3.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-19 01:40
TAB🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -2.04%E -1.62%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -15.44%E -4.06%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-18 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -4.37%E -3.55%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -15.44%E -4.06%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 01:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.40%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.60%EV -16.77%E -4.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-19 01:30
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -17.66%E -4.77%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -5.15%E -4.22%K -23.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -17.66%E -4.77%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.26I 79.37%NM 79.55%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.45%-0.2%2026-03-19 01:40
ProphetX1.25I 80.00%NM 79.51%4.85I 20.62%NM 20.49%0.6%2026-03-19 01:55
Novig1.25I 80.00%NM 79.51%4.85I 20.62%NM 20.49%0.6%2026-03-19 01:55
Kalshi1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80%1.0%2026-03-19 01:45
Polymarket1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-03-19 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-03-19 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-03-19 01:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-03-19 01:55