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Nevada Wolf Pack v Air Force Falcons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nevada Wolf Pack (Local)
Prediction 93.41%1.07fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -126.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%93.33%93.95%94.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0399.01%98.04%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Air Force Falcons (Visit)
Prediction 6.59%15.19fair odd
EV +18.53%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.202%
assuming max odds 18.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.36%6.67%6.05%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.1415.0018.009.09%7.07%6.67%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nevada Wolf Pack (Local): 93.41%; Air Force Falcons (Visit): 6.59%. For Air Force Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.19. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +18.53%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.202% | 3.6% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.95%E +0.703%K +0.747%G +0.089% | 3.9% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.18%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV +8.66%E +0.525%K +0.558%G +0.048% | 4.1% | 2026-03-11 21:33 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.78%E -3.67%K -126.09%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +5.36%E +0.335%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 3.3% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.36%E +0.335%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.36%E +0.335%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.36%E +0.335%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.97%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.90I 6.29%NM 6.03%EV +4.70%E +0.296%K +0.316%G +0.015% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.22%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 21:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.32%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.68%EV -6.16%E -0.432%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.32%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.68%EV -6.16%E -0.432%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.81%E -0.558%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.81%E -0.558%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.81%E -0.558%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.78%E -3.67%K -126.09%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.98%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 21:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -24.27%E -2.11%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -24.27%E -2.11%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -4.72%E -4.62%K -235.84%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -24.27%E -2.11%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 96.49% | 28.57I 3.50%NM 3.51% | -0.3% | 2026-03-11 21:40 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 96.48% | 28.50I 3.51%NM 3.52% | -0.3% | 2026-03-11 21:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.88% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.12% | 0.2% | 2026-03-11 21:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.06% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94% | 1.2% | 2026-03-11 21:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.25% | 16.39I 6.10%NM 5.75% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 21:40 |