Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Morgan St Bears v Howard Bison

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 21:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Morgan St Bears (Local)

Prediction 24.06%4.16fair odd

EV +14.31%

Edge +3.01%

Kelly +3.82%

Growth +0.546%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.17%23.69%24.06%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.754.444.504.7526.67%22.53%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Howard Bison (Visit)

Prediction 75.94%1.32fair odd

EV -2.04%

Edge -1.58%

Kelly -7.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.40%76.31%75.94%79.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.211.201.2984.03%82.34%83.33%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Morgan St Bears (Local): 24.06%; Howard Bison (Visit): 75.94%. For Morgan St Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +14.31%E +3.01%K +3.82%G +0.546%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-28 21:38
Virgin Bet🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
LeoVegas🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
ATG (SE)🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
Bally Bet🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
betPARX🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
Svenska Spel🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.10%E +2.79%K +3.54%G +0.464%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
BetRivers🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +8.29%E +1.84%K +2.37%G +0.196%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +8.29%E +1.84%K +2.37%G +0.196%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
Unibet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +8.29%E +1.84%K +2.37%G +0.196%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-02-28 21:39
Bovada🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +5.88%E +1.34%K +1.73%G +0.102%	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -7.36%E -6.03%K -33.45%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-02-28 21:33
TABtouch🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +5.88%E +1.34%K +1.73%G +0.102%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.88%E -7.40%K -44.39%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-28 21:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV +5.88%E +1.34%K +1.73%G +0.102%	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -9.64%E -8.10%K -50.72%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-28 21:39
BetMGM🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.34%E -0.326%K -0.431%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.36%E -6.03%K -33.45%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-28 21:39
TAB🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.32%E -3.43%K -16.62%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-02-28 21:40
theScore Bet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.55%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.80%E -2.19%K -10.01%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-28 21:39
DraftKings🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.04%E -1.58%K -7.05%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-02-28 21:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17%	1.0%	2026-02-28 21:39
Polymarket◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%	3.3%	2026-02-28 21:39