Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Green Bay Phoenix v Fort Wayne Mastodons

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 01:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Green Bay Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 63.33%1.58fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.04%63.28%63.41%64.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5669.44%66.73%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fort Wayne Mastodons (Visit)

Prediction 36.67%2.73fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.63%36.72%36.59%37.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.602.6840.82%38.63%38.46%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Green Bay Phoenix (Local): 63.33%; Fort Wayne Mastodons (Visit): 36.67%. For Green Bay Phoenix (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -1.21%E -0.774%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-04 00:59
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.21%E -0.774%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-04 00:59
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -2.47%E -1.61%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -5.75%E -2.24%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-04 00:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.11%E -2.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 01:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.11%E -2.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 01:00
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.11%E -2.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -3.55%E -1.35%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 00:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.11%E -2.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-04 00:59
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.74%E -2.46%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 01:00
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.37%E -2.90%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 00:58
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.37%E -2.90%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 01:00
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.37%E -2.90%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.19%E -1.21%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Caesars🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.37%E -2.90%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -3.92%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 00:58
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 00:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 00:59
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 00:59
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 00:59
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 00:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 00:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 01:00
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 01:00
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 01:00
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 00:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -1.72%E -0.642%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.27%E -4.24%K -13.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 00:59
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.27%E -4.24%K -13.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 00:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 00:59
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.16%E -4.14%K -7.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 00:59
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.16%E -4.14%K -7.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 00:59
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -7.54%E -5.16%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -4.65%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 01:00
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -8.17%E -5.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -3.92%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 00:59
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.17%E -5.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 01:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-04 01:00
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-04 00:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%2.0%2026-03-04 01:00
BetOpenly1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%2.71I 36.90%NM 36.08%2.3%2026-03-04 00:59
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%3.5%2026-03-04 00:57
ProphetX1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%4.7%2026-03-04 01:00