Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzaga Bulldogs v Santa Clara Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 01:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 75.23%1.33fair odd
EV -0.696%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.61%75.06%75.25%77.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3281.97%78.48%78.74%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santa Clara Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +0.960%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%24.94%24.75%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.733.724.2028.99%26.80%26.88%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gonzaga Bulldogs (Local): 75.23%; Santa Clara Broncos (Visit): 24.77%. For Santa Clara Broncos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.03%E +0.960%K +1.26%G +0.051%5.1%2026-03-11 01:03
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.94%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.06%EV +3.29%E +0.789%K +1.04%G +0.034%4.0%2026-03-11 00:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.920%E -0.230%K -0.307%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 01:09
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.920%E -0.230%K -0.307%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 01:09
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.16%E -0.547%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 01:10
GTbets🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.16%E -0.547%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 01:09
BetUS🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.16%E -0.547%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 01:08
ReBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.21%E -4.13%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -2.16%E -0.547%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 00:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.90%E -0.740%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.90%E -0.740%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -3.71%E -2.89%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -3.40%E -0.871%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 01:07
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.40%E -0.871%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-11 01:09
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.21%E -4.13%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.40%E -0.871%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 01:10
Caesars🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 01:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.95%E -2.29%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 00:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 00:59
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 00:59
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 01:00
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 00:59
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 00:59
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 01:10
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.70%EV -5.21%E -4.13%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.30%EV -7.86%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 00:59
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -2.95%E -2.29%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-11 01:10
TAB🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.71%E -2.89%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-11 01:10
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 01:10
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.96%E -4.77%K -23.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 00:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -8.22%E -6.74%K -37.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-11 01:10
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -8.22%E -6.74%K -37.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-11 01:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.97%EV -5.21%E -4.13%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV -11.32%E -3.16%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 00:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -0.696%E -0.527%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 01:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -1.45%E -1.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-11 01:09
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.20%E -1.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 01:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.20%E -1.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 01:10
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.20%E -1.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 01:10
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.95%E -2.29%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 01:10
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.20%E -1.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -14.54%E -4.22%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 01:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -2.95%E -2.29%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -14.54%E -4.22%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 01:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -2.95%E -2.29%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -14.54%E -4.22%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 01:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.32I 75.76%NM 75.87%4.15I 24.10%NM 24.13%-0.1%2026-03-11 00:59
Polymarket1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35%2.7%2026-03-11 01:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%6.7%2026-03-11 01:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%6.7%2026-03-11 01:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%7.4%2026-03-11 01:10
ProphetX1.27I 78.74%NM 55.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 44.56%42.0%2026-03-11 01:10
Novig1.27I 78.74%NM 44.05%1.00I 100.00%NM 55.95%78.7%2026-03-11 01:10