Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

George Mason Patriots v Liberty Flames

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

George Mason Patriots (Local)

Prediction 59.67%1.68fair odd
EV -0.952%
Edge -0.573%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%59.40%59.57%60.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.601.601.6664.94%62.61%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liberty Flames (Visit)

Prediction 40.33%2.48fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.484%
Kelly -0.818%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.36%40.60%40.43%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.302.4545.45%43.09%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: George Mason Patriots (Local): 59.67%; Liberty Flames (Visit): 40.33%. For George Mason Patriots (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.66, with an expected value of -0.952%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -0.952%E -0.573%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -8.85%E -3.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 21:45
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.34%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 21:45
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.34%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -11.27%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 21:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.94%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.19%E -0.484%K -0.818%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-17 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.94%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.19%E -0.484%K -0.818%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-17 21:45
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -3.94%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -2.40%E -0.990%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-17 21:45
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -3.94%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.82%E -2.04%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 21:45
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 21:45
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 21:50
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -10.46%E -4.71%K -8.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -10.46%E -4.71%K -8.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 21:50
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.13%E -3.23%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.19%E -0.484%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-17 21:55
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -5.13%E -3.23%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -1.99%E -0.820%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-17 21:40
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.13%E -3.23%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -2.40%E -0.990%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 21:45
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.13%E -3.23%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 21:50
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.73%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 21:45
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -5.73%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -8.04%E -3.53%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 21:45
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.32%E -4.03%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.32%E -4.03%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.11%E -5.27%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -8.04%E -3.53%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-17 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.69I 59.17%NM 59.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.82%-0.0%2026-03-17 21:50
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-03-17 21:55
ProphetX1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-03-17 21:55
Novig1.62I 61.73%NM 60.58%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.42%1.9%2026-03-17 21:50
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-03-17 21:50