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Fresno St Bulldogs v New Mexico Lobos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fresno St Bulldogs (Local)
Prediction 20.73%4.82fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.324%
Kelly +0.407%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.63%20.74%20.83%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.574.604.9023.81%21.87%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Mexico Lobos (Visit)
Prediction 79.27%1.26fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -10.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.90%79.26%79.17%80.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.201.191.2386.21%83.58%83.68%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fresno St Bulldogs (Local): 20.73%; New Mexico Lobos (Visit): 79.27%. For Fresno St Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV +1.59%E +0.324%K +0.407%G +0.006% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV +0.137%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV +0.137%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.485%E -0.101%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.485%E -0.101%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.46%E -5.48%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -1.52%E -0.320%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -8.05%E -6.94%K -50.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-21 16:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.63%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.29%E -2.70%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-21 15:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.29%E -2.70%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-21 21:42 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.26%E -6.20%K -42.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-21 16:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.46I 22.42%NM 21.62%EV -7.53%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.38%EV -2.50%E -2.03%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-22 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -7.74%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.04%EV -6.46%E -5.48%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -9.81%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -9.81%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.23%E -2.36%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.88%E -4.07%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -10.85%E -2.52%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -3.29%E -2.70%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.08%EV -11.47%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.92%EV -4.09%E -3.38%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -11.89%E -2.80%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -11.89%E -2.80%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.67%E -4.77%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.92%E -3.08%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -6.46%E -5.48%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.92%E -3.08%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -6.46%E -5.48%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.55% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.45% | -0.2% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 1.0% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Novig◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39% | 2.0% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |