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Florida St Seminoles v SMU Mustangs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Florida St Seminoles (Local)
Prediction 51.68%1.93fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.94%51.70%51.70%52.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.831.831.8756.50%54.51%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SMU Mustangs (Visit)
Prediction 48.32%2.07fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.20%48.30%48.30%49.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.961.952.0252.63%51.11%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Florida St Seminoles (Local): 51.68%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 48.32%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -2.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -3.87%E -2.08%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -3.85%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.87%E -2.08%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.30%E -2.70%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.87%E -2.08%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.30%E -2.70%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.33%E -2.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.33%E -2.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.78%E -2.96%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.26%E -3.23%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.26%E -3.23%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.39%E -2.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.75%E -3.50%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 18:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.30%E -2.70%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.30%E -2.70%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 18:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.75%E -3.50%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.71%E -4.04%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 18:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -8.20%E -4.31%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 18:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -8.20%E -4.31%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 18:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.94%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.40%E -1.19%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.94%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.37%E -1.68%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.75%E -3.50%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.71%E -4.04%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.71%E -4.04%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.71%E -4.04%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.71%E -4.04%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -8.01%E -4.50%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -5.30%E -2.70%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -4.33%E -2.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 18:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 18:24 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95% | 1.9% | 2026-03-07 18:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.79% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 48.21% | 2.2% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| Novig◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.05% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.95% | 2.7% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |