The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Dayton Flyers v Illinois St Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-25 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dayton Flyers (Local)

Prediction 73.32%1.36fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -12.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.72%73.16%73.35%74.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.291.291.3178.74%77.38%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois St Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV +0.054%
Edge +0.014%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%26.84%26.65%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.143.533.503.7531.85%28.34%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dayton Flyers (Local): 73.32%; Illinois St Redbirds (Visit): 26.68%. For Illinois St Redbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.748. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.750, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.054%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.054%E +0.014%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-25 17:05
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.054%E +0.014%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-25 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -0.213%E -0.057%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 17:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -0.213%E -0.057%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -1.28%E -0.346%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-25 04:59
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.54%EV -3.95%E -3.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.46%EV -2.88%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-25 22:50
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.95%E -3.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -3.95%E -3.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -5.28%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-25 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.95%E -3.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-25 22:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.60%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-25 22:55
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.60%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-25 22:55
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-24 01:04
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-25 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-25 22:45
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.15%E -4.81%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.95%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 18:10
Fliff🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.15%E -4.81%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.95%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 22:55
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.69%E -3.60%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.28%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-25 22:55
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.69%E -3.60%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.28%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-25 13:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.15%E -4.81%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -9.28%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-25 22:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.15%E -4.81%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -9.28%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-25 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -4.69%E -3.60%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.28%EV -16.22%E -5.17%K -7.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-25 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.52%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.48%0.1%2026-03-25 22:55
Novig◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.37%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.63%1.1%2026-03-25 22:55
Polymarket◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-03-25 22:40
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.2%2026-03-25 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93%1.5%2026-03-25 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93%1.5%2026-03-25 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93%1.5%2026-03-25 22:50
ProphetX◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%2.1%2026-03-25 22:45