Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bradley Braves v Dayton Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bradley Braves (Local)

Prediction 42.47%2.35fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%42.42%42.60%44.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.222.232.3048.08%45.06%44.94%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dayton Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 57.53%1.74fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.03%57.58%57.40%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.7062.50%60.73%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bradley Braves (Local): 42.47%; Dayton Flyers (Visit): 57.53%. For Dayton Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -2.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.33%E -1.01%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.33%E -1.01%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.33%E -1.01%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 00:25
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.33%E -1.01%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 00:35
BetUS🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -2.75%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 00:25
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -3.18%E -1.39%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-19 00:55
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-19 00:50
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-19 00:25
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 00:25
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 00:25
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 00:25
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.42%E -3.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 00:50
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.42%E -3.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 00:25
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.42%E -3.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 00:25
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.70%E -4.05%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 00:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -8.70%E -4.05%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 00:25
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.70%E -4.05%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.95%E -4.97%K -13.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-19 00:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.70%E -4.05%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.95%E -4.97%K -13.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-19 00:25
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -11.67%E -5.61%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -2.19%E -1.29%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%0.2%2026-03-19 00:50
Novig2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%1.0%2026-03-19 00:50
ProphetX2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-03-19 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-03-19 00:50
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.1%2026-03-19 00:55
Polymarket2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.1%2026-03-19 00:53
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-03-19 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-03-19 00:55