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Auburn Tigers v Illinois St Redbirds
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Auburn Tigers (Local)
Prediction 75.68%1.32fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -11.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.96%75.67%75.67%77.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2881.97%79.97%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Illinois St Redbirds (Visit)
Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV +5.57%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.093%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%24.33%24.33%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.893.854.3429.41%25.69%25.97%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Auburn Tigers (Local): 75.68%; Illinois St Redbirds (Visit): 24.32%. For Illinois St Redbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -6.16%E -4.97%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV +5.57%E +1.28%K +1.67%G +0.093% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -6.16%E -4.97%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV +5.57%E +1.28%K +1.67%G +0.093% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.74%EV -6.16%E -4.97%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.26%EV +5.32%E +1.23%K +1.60%G +0.085% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.15%EV -5.41%E -4.32%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.85%EV +2.65%E +0.627%K +0.822%G +0.022% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 01:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.41%E -4.32%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.89%E -3.06%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 01:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.92%E -5.62%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.89%E -3.06%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 01:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.68%E -6.29%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-03 01:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.68%E -6.29%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-03 01:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -3.89%E -3.06%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 01:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.13%E -2.45%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.41%E -4.32%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 01:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -4.65%E -3.69%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-03 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -4.65%E -3.69%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-03 01:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.41%E -4.32%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.68%E -6.29%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 01:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.68%E -6.29%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.13%E -2.45%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 01:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.13%E -2.45%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-02 16:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -4.65%E -3.69%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -17.30%E -5.09%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 01:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 77.78% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 22.22% | -1.1% | 2026-04-03 01:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.94% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 21.06% | -0.3% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.0% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.21% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.79% | 2.5% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90% | 5.7% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90% | 5.7% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37% | 7.0% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.31% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69% | 11.1% | 2026-04-03 01:45 |