Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets v Grambling St Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama St Hornets (Local)

Prediction 56.25%1.78fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.694%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%56.22%56.30%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.651.8061.73%59.75%60.61%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grambling St Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 43.75%2.29fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.78%43.70%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2048.78%46.56%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama St Hornets (Local): 56.25%; Grambling St Tigers (Visit): 43.75%. For Alabama St Hornets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +1.25%E +0.694%K +1.56%G +0.019%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -10.31%E -5.03%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 01:31
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.69%E -1.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.12%E -3.87%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 01:29
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.81%E -2.23%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.75%E -1.70%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 01:35
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.81%E -2.23%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.50%E -2.55%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 01:29
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.38%E -2.57%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.75%E -1.70%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 01:35
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.38%E -2.57%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.94%E -2.76%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 01:35
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.94%E -2.92%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.62%E -2.12%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 01:35
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.94%E -2.92%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.94%E -2.76%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 01:27
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.75%E -1.70%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 01:25
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.62%E -2.12%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.62%E -2.12%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 01:35
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.62%E -2.12%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 01:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.12%E -3.87%K -7.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 01:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.19%E -4.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.12%E -3.87%K -7.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 01:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -7.75%E -4.73%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.25%E -3.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 01:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -7.75%E -4.73%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.25%E -3.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 01:35
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -7.75%E -4.73%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.25%E -3.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 01:35
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -8.31%E -5.10%K -13.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -7.25%E -3.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-06 01:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.88%E -5.48%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.75%E -1.70%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 01:32
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-03-06 01:40
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-03-06 01:40
ProphetX1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%3.6%2026-03-06 01:31
Novig1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%7.4%2026-03-06 01:29