The School of Odds
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Tasmania JackJumpers v S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-09-21 09:36 UTC

Final: Tasmania JackJumpers 96–91 S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tasmania JackJumpers (Local)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV +0.364%
Edge +0.136%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.73%37.37%37.50%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.402.6844.44%41.56%41.67%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 62.55%1.60fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.99%62.63%62.50%64.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.561.6368.03%64.22%64.10%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tasmania JackJumpers (Local): 37.45%; S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit): 62.55%. For S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -15.74%E -7.00%K -12.59%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV +1.96%E +1.20%K +3.11%G +0.061%5.8%2026-09-21 09:34
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -11.99%E -5.10%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV +0.081%E +0.051%K +0.135%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 09:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -12.74%E -5.47%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +0.081%E +0.051%K +0.135%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 09:34
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -12.74%E -5.47%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +0.081%E +0.051%K +0.135%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 09:34
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -12.74%E -5.47%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +0.081%E +0.051%K +0.135%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 09:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -13.12%E -5.65%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV +0.081%E +0.051%K +0.135%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-21 09:34
SportsBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -9.37%E -3.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -1.80%E -1.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 09:34
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -1.80%E -1.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 19:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -1.80%E -1.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 19:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 08:49
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 09:18
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 09:04
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 08:49
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 09:24
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.38%E -2.55%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.92%E -3.24%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-21 09:04
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.50%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.17%E -4.12%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-21 09:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV +0.364%E +0.136%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -6.80%E -4.56%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 09:24
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -8.05%E -5.48%K -17.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 09:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%2.7%2026-09-21 09:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%2.7%2026-09-21 09:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%4.5%2026-09-21 09:34