The School of Odds
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Tasmania JackJumpers v Brisbane Bullets

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 08:30 UTC

Final: Tasmania JackJumpers 106–85 Brisbane Bullets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tasmania JackJumpers (Local)

Prediction 76.48%1.31fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -3.52%
Kelly -17.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.94%76.59%76.48%77.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.231.231.2586.96%81.58%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Bullets (Visit)

Prediction 23.52%4.25fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.385%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.41%23.52%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.104.044.104.2032.26%24.74%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tasmania JackJumpers (Local): 76.48%; Brisbane Bullets (Visit): 23.52%. For Brisbane Bullets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.40%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 08:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.40%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 07:54
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.40%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 08:00
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 08:00
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 08:25
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 08:00
TAB🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 08:05
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 07:50
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 07:50
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 07:50
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 08:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 07:50
picklebet_au🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 08:20
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.29%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.22%E -6.85%K -41.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.23%E -0.293%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 08:20
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -8.22%E -6.85%K -41.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.29%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 72.94%EV -12.04%E -10.47%K -80.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.06%EV -27.10%E -8.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-21 08:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-21 08:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-21 08:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-10-21 08:25