The School of Odds
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Tasmania JackJumpers v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 08:30 UTC

Final: Tasmania JackJumpers 88–94 Adelaide 36ers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tasmania JackJumpers (Local)

Prediction 64.00%1.56fair odd
EV +5.60%
Edge +3.40%
Kelly +8.62%
Growth +0.483%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%64.04%63.57%65.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.481.6570.42%67.19%67.57%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 36.00%2.78fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.47%35.96%36.43%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.602.602.7544.44%38.45%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tasmania JackJumpers (Local): 64.00%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 36.00%. For Tasmania JackJumpers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +5.60%E +3.40%K +8.62%G +0.483%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -19.01%E -8.45%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 08:29
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.72%E -1.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.21%E -3.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 08:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.41%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 07:10
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.41%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 08:10
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -6.77%E -2.61%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 06:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.21%E -3.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 08:15
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.21%E -3.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 08:15
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.00%E -2.66%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.21%E -3.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 08:14
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.64%E -3.11%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.41%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 08:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.28%E -3.56%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.28%E -3.56%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 08:20
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.28%E -3.56%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 08:20
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.28%E -3.56%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 08:20
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.92%E -4.02%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.41%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 08:24
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.56%E -4.49%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.81%E -1.04%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.56%E -4.49%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.81%E -1.04%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.20%E -4.96%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.01%E -0.367%K -0.576%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 07:04
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.84%E -5.44%K -17.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.41%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 08:00
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -9.12%E -6.42%K -21.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -2.81%E -1.04%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 07:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-10-16 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-10-16 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-10-16 08:25