The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Kings v New Zealand Breakers

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Final: Sydney Kings 101–102 New Zealand Breakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 85.35%1.17fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -19.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.45%85.19%85.53%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.111.111.1490.91%89.88%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 14.65%6.82fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.366%
Kelly +0.427%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%14.81%14.47%16.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.366.257.0017.39%15.72%16.00%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 85.35%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 14.65%. For New Zealand Breakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.82. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.56%E +0.366%K +0.427%G +0.011%5.2%2026-10-14 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.56%E +0.366%K +0.427%G +0.011%5.2%2026-10-14 05:54
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.56%E +0.366%K +0.427%G +0.011%5.2%2026-10-14 05:55
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.07%EV -5.26%E -4.74%K -47.85%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 13.93%EV +0.513%E +0.075%K +0.088%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-14 07:35
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -3.30%E -0.499%K -0.589%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 06:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.76%E -0.733%K -0.866%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-14 06:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.76%E -0.733%K -0.866%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-14 05:55
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -6.23%E -0.973%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 08:00
Bet Right🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 06:55
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 05:44
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 05:44
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 05:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 05:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.26%E -4.74%K -47.85%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -8.42%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 05:45
Dabble (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.56%E -3.15%K -27.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -12.09%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 05:59
picklebet_au🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.41%E -3.94%K -36.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.09%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-14 08:19
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.12%E -5.56%K -61.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.09%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 05:49
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -2.70%E -2.37%K -19.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -15.75%E -2.74%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 08:29
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -5.26%E -4.74%K -47.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -15.75%E -2.74%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 07:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-10-14 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-10-14 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-10-14 08:25