The School of Odds
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Sydney Kings v New Zealand Breakers

2026-10-14 08:36 UTC — NBL

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 80.10%1.25fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -10.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.90%80.10%80.10%82.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.171.2286.96%84.89%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 19.90%5.02fair odd
EV +4.49%
Edge +0.856%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.97%19.90%19.90%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.794.885.2523.26%20.88%20.51%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sydney Kings (Local): 80.10%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 19.90%. For New Zealand Breakers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.02. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +4.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +4.49%E +0.856%K +1.06%G +0.048%6.0%2026-10-12 06:24
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.37%K -36.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.51%E +0.296%K +0.368%G +0.006%5.1%2026-10-12 02:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.37%K -36.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.51%E +0.296%K +0.368%G +0.006%5.1%2026-10-12 03:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.37%K -36.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.482%E -0.096%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-12 05:55
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.37%K -36.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.482%E -0.096%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-12 05:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.46%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-12 01:19
Bet Right🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.29%E -5.37%K -36.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -8.44%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 03:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.88%E -3.24%K -19.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 03:44
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -12.42%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 03:49
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -2.28%E -1.87%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -14.41%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-12 06:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.