The School of Odds
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Sydney Kings v Illawarra Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 08:00 UTC

Final: Sydney Kings 121–100 Illawarra Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 77.55%1.29fair odd
EV -0.739%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.74%77.55%77.42%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.221.2883.33%81.62%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 22.45%4.45fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.230%
Kelly +0.296%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%22.45%22.58%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.254.174.204.5030.77%23.97%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 77.55%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 22.45%. For Illawarra Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.03%E +0.230%K +0.296%G +0.003%5.6%2026-09-27 07:00
BetRivers🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.03%E +0.230%K +0.296%G +0.003%5.6%2026-09-27 07:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.03%E +0.230%K +0.296%G +0.003%5.6%2026-09-27 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.03%E +0.230%K +0.296%G +0.003%5.6%2026-09-27 07:00
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.03%E +0.230%K +0.296%G +0.003%5.6%2026-09-27 07:00
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.14%EV -5.39%E -4.42%K -24.51%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.86%EV -2.11%E -0.484%K -0.628%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-27 07:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.84%E -3.10%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-27 07:00
Coolbet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.39%E -4.42%K -24.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-27 07:45
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.39%E -4.42%K -24.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-27 07:05
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-27 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.39%E -4.42%K -24.51%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -6.82%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 07:40
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.84%E -3.10%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.95%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 05:30
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.94%E -5.79%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.95%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 07:05
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.07%E -2.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 02:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.07%E -2.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 02:10
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.07%E -2.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 07:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.07%E -2.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 02:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.84%E -3.10%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 23:35
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -0.739%E -0.577%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -27.03%E -8.32%K -12.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-27 02:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-09-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-09-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-09-27 07:55