The School of Odds
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Sydney Kings v Cairns Taipans

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 07:00 UTC

Final: Sydney Kings 111–90 Cairns Taipans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 75.21%1.33fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.12%75.18%75.25%75.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.261.261.3081.30%79.16%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -0.852%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%24.82%24.75%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.743.773.9029.41%26.72%26.49%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 75.21%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 24.79%. For Sydney Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.30, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -2.23%E -1.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -11.50%E -3.22%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 06:24
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.73%E -2.91%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 19:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.73%E -2.91%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 07:55
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.73%E -2.91%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 07:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.48%E -3.53%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.32%E -0.852%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-20 06:54
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.48%E -3.53%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 06:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.48%E -3.53%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 04:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.48%E -3.53%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 06:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 06:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 13:40
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 07:00
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 07:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 04:24
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.99%E -4.79%K -23.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 19:09
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.99%E -4.79%K -23.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 04:49
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -5.99%E -4.79%K -23.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -15.72%E -4.62%K -6.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 06:44
TAB🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -6.74%E -5.43%K -28.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -3.32%E -0.852%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 06:50
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.49%E -6.09%K -32.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-09-20 06:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%1.3%2026-09-20 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-09-20 06:59