The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Kings v Brisbane Bullets

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 09:41 UTC

Final: Sydney Kings 93–78 Brisbane Bullets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 71.74%1.39fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.42%71.73%72.44%73.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.3778.13%75.28%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Bullets (Visit)

Prediction 28.26%3.54fair odd
EV +0.620%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.90%28.27%27.56%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.113.303.203.5632.15%30.31%31.25%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 71.74%; Brisbane Bullets (Visit): 28.26%. For Brisbane Bullets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.620%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.10%EV -6.03%E -4.60%K -19.44%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.90%EV +0.620%E +0.174%K +0.242%G +0.001%4.4%2026-09-30 09:20
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.74%E -5.19%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.08%E -0.307%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-30 00:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.74%E -5.19%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.08%E -0.307%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-30 00:59
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.74%E -5.19%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.08%E -0.307%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-30 09:29
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -5.31%E -4.02%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.56%EV -1.92%E -0.554%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-30 09:39
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.44%EV -7.46%E -5.78%K -25.73%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.56%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 09:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.31%E -4.02%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.73%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-30 09:15
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -8.18%E -6.39%K -29.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -8.14%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 09:34
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.44%E -1.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-30 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:10
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:10
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.16%E -2.34%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.87%E -2.89%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 09:10
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.31%E -4.02%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.56%E -2.99%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 09:20
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.42%EV -1.72%E -1.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.58%EV -12.10%E -3.89%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-30 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%3.0%2026-09-30 09:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%5.9%2026-09-30 09:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%8.0%2026-09-30 09:40