The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Kings v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Final: Sydney Kings 78–84 Adelaide 36ers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 75.44%1.33fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -6.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%75.46%75.25%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.3083.33%79.82%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 24.56%4.07fair odd
EV +10.51%
Edge +2.33%
Kelly +3.00%
Growth +0.315%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%24.54%24.75%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.893.944.5028.57%25.70%25.35%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 75.44%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 24.56%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -9.47%E -7.89%K -47.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +10.51%E +2.33%K +3.00%G +0.315%5.6%2026-10-11 00:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -7.96%E -6.52%K -36.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +4.37%E +1.03%K +1.34%G +0.059%5.5%2026-10-11 01:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.21%E -5.86%K -31.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +3.14%E +0.747%K +0.981%G +0.031%5.1%2026-10-11 00:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.96%E -6.52%K -36.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +3.14%E +0.747%K +0.981%G +0.031%5.8%2026-10-11 03:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.96%E -6.52%K -36.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +3.14%E +0.747%K +0.981%G +0.031%5.8%2026-10-11 00:45
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.96%E -6.52%K -36.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +3.14%E +0.747%K +0.981%G +0.031%5.8%2026-10-11 00:45
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.45%E -5.20%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +0.684%E +0.167%K +0.221%G +0.002%5.0%2026-10-11 03:35
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -7.21%E -5.86%K -31.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV +0.684%E +0.167%K +0.221%G +0.002%5.7%2026-10-11 03:50
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.59%EV -5.70%E -4.56%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.41%EV +0.438%E +0.107%K +0.142%G +0.001%4.4%2026-10-11 03:55
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.70%E -4.56%K -22.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 01:45
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.43%E -2.68%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -10.37%E -2.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 03:50
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.70%E -4.56%K -22.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -10.37%E -2.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 01:15
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.68%E -2.08%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 03:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.92%E -1.48%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 03:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.92%E -1.48%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 03:55
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.92%E -1.48%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 03:55
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.92%E -1.48%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 03:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.70%E -4.56%K -22.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-11 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-11 03:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-10-11 03:50