Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 04:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

73%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 72.60%1.38fair odd

EV -3.44%

Edge -2.58%

Kelly -10.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.45%72.76%72.63%74.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.231.291.281.3381.30%77.77%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd

EV +2.74%

Edge +0.730%

Kelly +0.995%

Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.30%27.24%27.37%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.533.553.7532.26%28.29%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 72.60%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 27.40%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Neds🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -7.79%E -6.14%K -28.86%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +2.74%E +0.730%K +0.995%G +0.027%	5.4%	2026-04-02 01:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -7.79%E -6.14%K -28.86%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +2.74%E +0.730%K +0.995%G +0.027%	5.4%	2026-04-02 01:15
SportsBet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.45%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.73I 26.81%NM 25.55%EV +2.19%E +0.587%K +0.801%G +0.018%	4.9%	2026-04-05 04:34
BetRivers🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.37%E +0.369%K +0.506%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:39
Virgin Bet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.37%E +0.369%K +0.506%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:44
Unibet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.37%E +0.369%K +0.506%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:45
TABtouch🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.37%E +0.369%K +0.506%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:39
TAB🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.62%E -4.32%K -18.72%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -1.37%E -0.382%K -0.528%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-04-05 04:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -1.37%E -0.382%K -0.528%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-05 04:15
Bet Right🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.62%E -4.32%K -18.72%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.74%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-04-05 04:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.16%E -3.15%K -13.01%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-05 04:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.62%E -4.32%K -18.72%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-03 22:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.34%E -4.92%K -21.87%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-04 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -8.52%E -6.76%K -32.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-04-05 04:30
Betsson🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -7.07%E -5.52%K -25.24%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.85%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-05 01:04
PlayUp🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.44%E -2.58%K -10.42%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.22%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-05 04:30
Coolbet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -5.62%E -4.32%K -18.72%G +0.000%	3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -9.04%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-05 04:34
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -10.70%E -8.70%K -46.51%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -12.33%E -3.85%K -5.61%G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-04-05 04:30
Coral🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.62%E -4.32%K -18.72%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -15.07%E -4.86%K -7.18%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-04-05 00:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	2.4%	2026-04-05 04:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	2.4%	2026-04-05 04:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	2.4%	2026-04-05 04:34