The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Kings v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 08:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Kings (Local)

Prediction 69.91%1.43fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -5.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%70.02%69.98%72.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.351.4076.92%73.92%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd
EV +5.30%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%29.98%30.02%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.113.133.5036.36%32.16%32.00%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Kings (Local): 69.91%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 30.09%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -7.71%E -5.84%K -24.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +5.30%E +1.51%K +2.12%G +0.112%4.3%2026-03-21 07:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.22%E -0.684%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 07:20
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.22%E -0.684%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 07:20
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -8.41%E -6.42%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.22%E -0.684%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 07:20
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -3.13%E -0.971%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 07:50
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.73%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.23%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 07:25
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.23%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 07:20
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.23%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 07:20
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.52%E -2.55%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.74%E -2.17%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.61%E -4.16%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.74%E -2.17%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 07:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.01%E -5.27%K -21.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.74%E -2.17%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 08:02
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.01%E -5.27%K -21.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.74%E -2.17%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 07:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.11%E -7.01%K -30.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -9.74%E -3.25%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 08:02
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.12%E -1.51%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.75%E -4.40%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 23:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.12%E -1.51%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.75%E -4.40%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 23:54
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.52%E -2.55%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.75%E -4.40%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 08:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.12%E -1.51%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -17.27%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 08:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.4%2026-03-21 08:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.4%2026-03-21 08:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.4%2026-03-21 08:05