The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Perth Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 08:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 61.33%1.63fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%61.62%61.25%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.521.5867.57%65.31%65.57%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Perth Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 38.67%2.59fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.933%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%38.38%38.75%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.472.452.6542.55%40.49%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 61.33%; Perth Wildcats (Visit): 38.67%. For Perth Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.00%E -5.34%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +2.47%E +0.933%K +1.50%G +0.037%4.4%2026-03-04 08:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.00%E -5.34%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.539%E +0.207%K +0.337%G +0.002%5.1%2026-03-04 08:34
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.00%E -5.34%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.539%E +0.207%K +0.337%G +0.002%5.1%2026-03-04 08:34
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.39%E -0.547%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 08:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -8.00%E -5.34%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -1.39%E -0.547%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 08:35
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.62%E -5.78%K -17.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.39%E -0.547%K -0.900%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 08:34
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -2.94%E -1.17%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 08:35
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.94%E -3.18%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.26%E -2.15%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 08:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.94%E -3.18%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.26%E -2.15%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 08:35
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.55%E -3.60%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.26%E -2.15%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -6.03%E -2.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 08:35
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.19%E -3.00%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 08:29
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.19%E -3.00%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 08:33
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.10%E -1.96%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 08:35
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.71%E -2.36%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 08:35
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.71%E -2.36%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 08:27
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.71%E -2.36%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.71%E -2.36%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.13%E -3.88%K -6.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-03-04 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-03-04 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-03-04 08:35