The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Melbourne United

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 09:30 UTC

Final: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix 61–86 Melbourne United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 43.59%2.29fair odd
EV +4.62%
Edge +1.92%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%43.78%43.26%45.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.192.202.4048.31%45.64%45.45%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne United (Visit)

Prediction 56.41%1.77fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.733%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.31%56.22%56.74%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.671.671.7563.69%59.77%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 43.59%; Melbourne United (Visit): 56.41%. For S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +4.62%E +1.92%K +3.30%G +0.152%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -10.87%E -6.88%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 05:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +4.62%E +1.92%K +3.30%G +0.152%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -10.87%E -6.88%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 05:20
SportsBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -0.614%E -0.269%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -8.05%E -4.94%K -12.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 08:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -1.92%E -0.854%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.80%E -3.47%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 09:20
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.92%E -0.854%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.92%E -4.20%K -10.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 09:20
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.23%E -3.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 09:09
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.23%E -3.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 09:25
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.80%E -3.47%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.80%E -3.47%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 09:15
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.80%E -3.47%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 09:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.36%E -3.83%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 09:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -11.44%E -7.28%K -20.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-24 09:20
Coolbet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.97%E -2.28%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.36%E -3.83%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 09:25
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -9.33%E -4.49%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.28%E -0.733%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 08:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -9.33%E -4.49%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.28%E -0.733%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -9.33%E -4.49%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.28%E -0.733%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 08:45
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -9.33%E -4.49%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.28%E -0.733%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 08:44
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -9.33%E -4.49%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -5.23%E -3.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-24 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -9.77%E -4.72%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.85%E -1.06%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-24 09:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-24 09:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-24 09:20