The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Illawarra Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 04:00 UTC

Final: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix 113–96 Illawarra Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 60.40%1.66fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.63%60.53%60.15%62.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.551.6366.67%64.21%64.52%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 39.60%2.53fair odd
EV +0.978%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.631%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%39.47%39.85%41.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.312.412.412.5543.29%41.50%41.49%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 60.40%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 39.60%. For Illawarra Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.978%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.40%E -6.27%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.978%E +0.384%K +0.631%G +0.006%5.9%2026-10-04 01:14
TAB🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.59%E -4.96%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.00%E -0.401%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 03:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 00:55
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 00:55
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 03:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 03:10
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 03:05
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 03:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.98%E -4.53%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.77%E -1.55%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 03:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%EV -4.57%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 03:10
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.98%E -4.53%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 03:05
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -3.96%E -2.49%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -6.15%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 03:40
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.24%EV -9.40%E -6.27%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -6.15%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 02:45
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -6.55%E -2.77%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 03:58
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.36%E -2.10%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 03:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.57%E -2.89%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 03:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 03:59
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -6.38%E -4.12%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 03:05
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV -1.55%E -0.949%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -8.53%E -3.69%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-04 03:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-10-04 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-10-04 03:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-10-04 03:55