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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Illawarra Hawks

2026-11-11 08:36 UTC — NBL

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 72.40%1.38fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -11.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.54%72.44%72.40%75.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.291.291.3384.03%77.62%77.82%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 27.60%3.62fair odd
EV +2.11%
Edge +0.571%
Kelly +0.783%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%27.56%27.60%29.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.453.493.7035.09%28.95%28.65%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 72.40%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 27.60%. For Illawarra Hawks (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.70, producing a positive expected value of +2.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.33%E -5.72%K -26.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +2.11%E +0.571%K +0.783%G +0.017%5.2%2026-11-09 02:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.33%E -5.72%K -26.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +2.11%E +0.571%K +0.783%G +0.017%5.2%2026-11-09 02:34
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -11.67%E -9.57%K -53.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV +2.11%E +0.571%K +0.783%G +0.017%9.0%2026-11-09 08:09
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.33%E -5.72%K -26.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.646%E -0.179%K -0.248%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-09 04:20
TAB🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.33%E -5.72%K -26.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.646%E -0.179%K -0.248%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-09 04:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.60%E -5.12%K -22.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.41%E -0.973%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-09 21:14
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.60%E -5.12%K -22.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.41%E -0.973%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-09 11:29
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -8.05%E -6.34%K -29.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.41%E -0.973%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-09 06:20
picklebet_au🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -8.77%E -6.96%K -33.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -3.41%E -0.973%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-09 15:50
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -5.15%E -3.93%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -3.96%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-09 03:00
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.33%E -5.72%K -26.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -4.79%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 04:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 04:19
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 04:20
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 04:20
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 04:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.43%E -3.36%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-09 02:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.43%E -3.36%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-09 04:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 70.54%EV -13.84%E -11.63%K -72.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.46%EV -21.34%E -7.49%K -11.54%G +0.000%19.1%2026-11-09 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-11-09 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-11-09 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-11-09 23:15

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