The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Cairns Taipans

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 06:30 UTC

Final: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix 115–83 Cairns Taipans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 66.87%1.50fair odd
EV +4.99%
Edge +3.18%
Kelly +8.76%
Growth +0.437%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.45%66.92%66.90%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.441.451.5772.99%69.32%68.97%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 33.13%3.02fair odd
EV -0.619%
Edge -0.206%
Kelly -0.309%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%33.08%33.10%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.772.753.0041.67%36.11%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 66.87%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 33.13%. For S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +4.99%E +3.18%K +8.76%G +0.437%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -20.50%E -8.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 00:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +4.99%E +3.18%K +8.76%G +0.437%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -20.50%E -8.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 00:00
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV +0.309%E +0.206%K +0.619%G +0.002%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -13.54%E -5.19%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 06:05
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +0.309%E +0.206%K +0.619%G +0.002%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -13.87%E -5.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 06:24
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.03%E -0.695%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -10.56%E -3.91%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 06:05
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -1.70%E -1.15%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -13.87%E -5.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 06:05
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.03%E -2.09%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -7.24%E -2.59%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -3.03%E -2.09%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -7.58%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 06:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.03%E -2.09%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.90%E -3.24%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 06:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.03%E -2.09%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.90%E -3.24%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 06:04
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -3.70%E -2.57%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -9.89%E -3.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 06:15
Coolbet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.71%E -4.05%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.59%E -1.96%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 06:14
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.38%E -4.56%K -15.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.90%E -3.24%K -5.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 05:35
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.72%E -5.59%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.619%E -0.206%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 05:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.72%E -5.59%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.619%E -0.206%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 05:25
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.72%E -5.59%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.619%E -0.206%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 05:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.72%E -5.59%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.619%E -0.206%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 05:25
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.72%E -5.59%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.619%E -0.206%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 05:25
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -8.38%E -6.12%K -22.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -3.93%E -1.36%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 05:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-10-17 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-10-17 06:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-10-17 06:20