The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 06:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 67.98%1.47fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -3.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.45%68.14%67.43%72.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.391.421.4577.52%71.94%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd
EV +8.86%
Edge +2.60%
Kelly +3.69%
Growth +0.327%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%31.86%32.57%36.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.942.883.4040.00%33.98%34.72%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 67.98%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 32.02%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -10.26%E -7.77%K -32.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +8.86%E +2.60%K +3.69%G +0.327%5.2%2026-03-14 06:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.22%E -6.09%K -23.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +2.45%E +0.767%K +1.11%G +0.027%5.3%2026-03-14 05:55
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -8.90%E -6.64%K -26.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +2.45%E +0.767%K +1.11%G +0.027%5.9%2026-03-14 06:29
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -10.26%E -7.77%K -32.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +2.45%E +0.767%K +1.11%G +0.027%7.0%2026-03-14 06:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -10.94%E -8.35%K -35.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV +2.45%E +0.767%K +1.11%G +0.027%7.6%2026-03-14 06:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.62%EV -12.30%E -9.54%K -42.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -0.749%E -0.242%K -0.357%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.14%E -2.94%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -4.59%E -1.54%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 06:20
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.15%E -2.47%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.79%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:24
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.79%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:24
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.79%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:27
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.79%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:30
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.75%EV -4.82%E -3.45%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -10.03%E -3.57%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 06:30
Neds🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.78%E -1.95%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.35%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.78%E -1.95%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.35%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 05:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.46%E -2.44%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.35%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 06:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.42%E -0.982%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -11.95%E -4.35%K -6.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 06:05
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.82%E -3.45%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.95%E -4.35%K -6.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 06:29
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -2.10%E -1.46%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -19.96%E -7.98%K -13.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-03-14 06:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-03-14 06:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-03-14 06:35