The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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S.E. Melbourne Phoenix v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 08:30 UTC

Final: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix 108–94 Adelaide 36ers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 55.56%1.80fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.69%55.62%55.50%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.691.701.7465.79%59.17%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 44.44%2.25fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.30%44.38%44.50%45.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.112.122.2053.48%47.31%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Local): 55.56%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 44.44%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.69%E -3.18%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:36
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -5.35%E -2.51%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 08:25
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.43%E -2.57%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.98%E -2.91%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 08:12
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.98%E -2.91%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 08:12
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.98%E -2.91%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 08:12
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.98%E -2.91%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 08:12
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.98%E -2.91%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 08:12
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.46%E -2.08%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 03:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.46%E -2.08%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 04:40
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.46%E -2.08%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 03:20
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.46%E -2.08%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 07:44
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 08:28
Betr (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.69%E -3.18%K -6.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 08:15
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 08:20
picklebet_au🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.46%E -2.08%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 08:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -5.80%E -2.73%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 08:29
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 55.16%EV -15.54%E -10.22%K -29.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 44.84%EV -16.91%E -9.04%K -19.43%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-24 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.1%2026-10-24 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%1.4%2026-10-24 08:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.5%2026-10-24 08:25