Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Wildcats v Sydney Kings

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 09:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

31%

69%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 31.32%3.19fair odd

EV +4.92%

Edge +1.47%

Kelly +2.09%

Growth +0.103%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.42%31.15%31.41%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.053.003.3535.71%32.84%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Kings (Visit)

Prediction 68.68%1.46fair odd

EV -2.47%

Edge -1.74%

Kelly -5.89%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.35%68.85%68.59%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.361.351.4278.74%73.30%74.07%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Wildcats (Local): 31.32%; Sydney Kings (Visit): 68.68%. For Perth Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +4.92%E +1.47%K +2.09%G +0.103%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-14 08:55
SportsBet🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +4.92%E +1.47%K +2.09%G +0.103%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -8.65%E -6.51%K -26.23%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-14 08:40
TAB🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +1.79%E +0.550%K +0.795%G +0.014%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.65%E -6.51%K -26.23%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-14 08:40
Bet Right🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV +1.79%E +0.550%K +0.795%G +0.014%	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -10.03%E -7.66%K -32.35%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-14 08:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +1.79%E +0.550%K +0.795%G +0.014%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -10.72%E -8.24%K -35.72%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-03-14 09:00
Neds🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.222%E +0.070%K +0.101%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-14 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.222%E +0.070%K +0.101%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-14 01:39
Betr (AU)🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.48%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.32%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-14 08:50
Betsson🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-14 08:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.74%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -12.78%E -10.06%K -47.32%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-03-14 09:00
Coolbet🎯	2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -7.92%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-14 09:00
PlayUp🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-14 05:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.16%E -2.24%K -7.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-13 22:20
Coral🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.65%E -6.51%K -26.23%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-14 09:00
BetRivers🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-14 05:05
Unibet🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-14 05:05
TABtouch🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-14 05:04
Virgin Bet🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-14 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -12.31%E -4.39%K -6.84%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.47%E -1.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-14 05:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%	1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%	1.3%	2026-03-14 09:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	2.4%	2026-03-14 09:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	2.4%	2026-03-14 09:05