The School of Odds
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Perth Wildcats v S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 11:30 UTC

Final: Perth Wildcats 92–88 S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 38.68%2.59fair odd
EV +8.30%
Edge +2.97%
Kelly +4.61%
Growth +0.383%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.81%38.85%38.74%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.392.542.482.8041.84%39.30%40.32%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 61.32%1.63fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.90%61.15%61.26%66.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.521.6069.93%66.32%65.79%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Wildcats (Local): 38.68%; S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit): 61.32%. For Perth Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +8.30%E +2.97%K +4.61%G +0.383%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -12.31%E -8.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +8.30%E +2.97%K +4.61%G +0.383%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -12.31%E -8.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +8.30%E +2.97%K +4.61%G +0.383%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -12.31%E -8.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 11:25
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +8.30%E +2.97%K +4.61%G +0.383%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -12.31%E -8.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 11:25
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.567%E +0.218%K +0.354%G +0.002%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.02%E -5.35%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 11:00
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.37%E -0.536%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-02 11:20
Dabble (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -1.37%E -0.536%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -8.02%E -5.35%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 11:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.37%E -0.536%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.63%E -5.79%K -17.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 11:20
SportsBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -2.14%E -0.846%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:25
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.07%E -1.64%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.57%E -3.61%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:16
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%EV -4.46%E -1.81%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-02 11:29
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.24%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.95%E -3.20%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.24%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.95%E -3.20%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.24%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 11:25
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.24%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 11:15
Coolbet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -6.01%E -2.47%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.57%E -3.61%K -10.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 11:29
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.17%E -2.99%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:55
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.99%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.25%E -6.25%K -19.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.10%EV -7.56%E -3.16%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -1.89%E -1.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 11:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-10-02 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-10-02 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-10-02 11:25