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New Zealand Breakers v Illawarra Hawks

2026-09-20 05:06 UTC — NBL

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Breakers (Local)

Prediction 51.46%1.94fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.46%51.46%51.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.851.9055.56%54.28%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 48.54%2.06fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.28%48.54%48.54%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.921.951.9754.05%51.99%51.28%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New Zealand Breakers (Local): 51.46%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 48.54%. For New Zealand Breakers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.90, with an expected value of -2.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.22%E -1.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.78%E -4.10%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 06:35
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.76%E -2.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.24%E -4.94%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 06:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.79%E -2.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 06:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.79%E -2.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 06:34
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.79%E -2.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 06:35
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.31%E -2.88%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 06:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.33%E -3.48%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 06:35
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.36%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.81%E -3.55%K -7.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 06:34
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -7.36%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 06:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-15 06:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-15 06:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-15 06:35