The School of Odds
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New Zealand Breakers v Illawarra Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 05:00 UTC

Final: New Zealand Breakers 95–81 Illawarra Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Breakers (Local)

Prediction 42.06%2.38fair odd
EV +7.25%
Edge +2.84%
Kelly +4.68%
Growth +0.339%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%42.14%41.98%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.252.5548.78%44.37%44.44%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 57.94%1.73fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -5.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.41%57.86%58.02%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.651.6665.79%61.22%60.61%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Breakers (Local): 42.06%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 57.94%. For New Zealand Breakers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +7.25%E +2.84%K +4.68%G +0.339%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -11.93%E -7.85%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 04:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +0.942%E +0.392%K +0.673%G +0.006%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -10.19%E -6.58%K -18.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 04:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.11%E -1.80%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-20 04:49
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 00:49
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 00:49
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:20
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 02:39
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 04:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.21%E -2.78%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.82%E -2.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:35
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.21%E -2.78%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.82%E -2.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:39
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.21%E -2.78%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.82%E -2.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:35
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.21%E -2.78%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.82%E -2.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 04:34
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.63%E -2.99%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -7.29%E -4.56%K -12.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 04:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 04:34
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 04:49
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -13.78%E -6.72%K -13.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-09-20 04:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-09-20 04:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-09-20 04:59