The School of Odds
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New Zealand Breakers v Cairns Taipans

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 07:30 UTC

Final: New Zealand Breakers 98–75 Cairns Taipans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Breakers (Local)

Prediction 62.55%1.60fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -5.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.26%62.63%62.19%65.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.521.511.5568.49%65.96%66.23%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV +2.25%
Edge +0.824%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.84%37.37%37.81%39.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.502.7342.55%39.66%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Breakers (Local): 62.55%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 37.45%. For Cairns Taipans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%EV -8.68%E -5.95%K -18.88%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV +2.25%E +0.824%K +1.30%G +0.029%5.1%2026-09-30 07:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.747%E -0.282%K -0.453%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 07:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.62%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-30 07:00
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.62%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-30 07:14
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.49%E -1.76%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.49%E -1.76%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.49%E -1.76%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 07:25
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.49%E -1.76%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.37%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 06:14
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.37%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 05:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.37%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 05:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.93%E -3.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.37%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 07:20
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.93%E -3.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.37%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 07:19
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV -6.74%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-30 07:20
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.24%E -3.36%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 07:10
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.24%E -3.36%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 06:45
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.24%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -11.23%E -4.74%K -8.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 07:10
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.05%E -1.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.98%E -5.10%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 07:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-09-30 07:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-09-30 07:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-09-30 07:10