The School of Odds
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Melbourne United v Tasmania JackJumpers

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 08:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 75.30%1.33fair odd
EV -0.607%
Edge -0.459%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.03%75.16%75.40%78.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.251.241.3284.03%80.29%80.65%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tasmania JackJumpers (Visit)

Prediction 24.70%4.05fair odd
EV +8.69%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.29%24.84%24.60%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.954.004.4029.41%25.31%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne United (Local): 75.30%; Tasmania JackJumpers (Visit): 24.70%. For Tasmania JackJumpers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -10.40%E -8.74%K -54.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV +8.69%E +1.97%K +2.56%G +0.222%6.8%2026-03-05 08:33
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.88%EV -7.38%E -6.00%K -32.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.12%EV +6.96%E +1.61%K +2.09%G +0.145%4.4%2026-03-05 08:29
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.28%E +0.312%K +0.412%G +0.005%5.0%2026-03-05 08:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.28%E +0.312%K +0.412%G +0.005%5.0%2026-03-05 08:35
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.28%E +0.312%K +0.412%G +0.005%5.0%2026-03-05 08:35
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.12%E -4.07%K -19.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -1.19%E -0.298%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 08:34
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.88%E -4.70%K -23.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.19%E -0.298%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 08:35
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.88%E -4.70%K -23.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.19%E -0.298%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 08:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -1.19%E -0.298%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 08:35
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -1.19%E -0.298%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 08:35
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.12%E -4.07%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.66%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 08:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -3.66%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 08:35
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.37%E -3.44%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.13%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 08:26
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.63%E -5.35%K -27.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -6.13%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 08:35
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.38%E -6.00%K -32.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -6.13%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 08:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.12%E -4.07%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.37%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 08:35
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.14%E -6.67%K -36.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -7.37%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-05 08:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -0.607%E -0.459%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -16.01%E -4.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%2.5%2026-03-05 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%2.5%2026-03-05 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%2.5%2026-03-05 08:35