The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melbourne United v Sydney Kings

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 06:00 UTC

Final: Melbourne United 105–95 Sydney Kings

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd
EV +9.47%
Edge +3.64%
Kelly +5.92%
Growth +0.560%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.43%42.36%41.88%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.272.252.6051.28%44.06%44.44%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Kings (Visit)

Prediction 57.90%1.73fair odd
EV +0.162%
Edge +0.093%
Kelly +0.221%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%57.64%58.12%63.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.611.621.7367.57%62.07%61.73%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne United (Local): 42.10%; Sydney Kings (Visit): 57.90%. For Melbourne United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV +9.47%E +3.64%K +5.92%G +0.560%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -13.73%E -9.22%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 05:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV +9.47%E +3.64%K +5.92%G +0.560%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -13.73%E -9.22%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 05:55
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV +9.47%E +3.64%K +5.92%G +0.560%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -13.73%E -9.22%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 05:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.32%E -1.00%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.79%E -4.21%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 05:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 05:52
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 05:52
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 05:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.37%E -4.60%K -12.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 05:55
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 05:55
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.27%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 05:58
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -5.69%E -2.54%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -3.89%E -2.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-25 05:51
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.53%E -2.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -7.37%E -4.60%K -12.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 05:59
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 05:51
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 05:51
SportsBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -7.79%E -3.56%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 05:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -9.48%E -4.41%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.58%E -0.927%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 05:40
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -11.58%E -5.52%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +0.162%E +0.093%K +0.221%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 05:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -13.69%E -6.68%K -13.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 05:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.15%EV -17.90%E -9.18%K -18.84%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 56.85%EV -14.31%E -9.67%K -29.82%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-25 05:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-10-25 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-10-25 05:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-10-25 05:52