The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 06:00 UTC

Final: Melbourne United 89–91 Illawarra Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 80.35%1.24fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -8.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.10%80.42%80.54%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2286.96%84.82%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 19.65%5.09fair odd
EV +8.05%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%19.58%19.46%21.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.764.755.5022.99%21.01%21.05%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne United (Local): 80.35%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 19.65%. For Illawarra Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.59%E -6.60%K -50.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +8.05%E +1.46%K +1.79%G +0.144%5.1%2026-10-18 05:30
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.18%EV -6.79%E -5.85%K -42.44%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.82%EV +5.11%E +0.955%K +1.17%G +0.060%4.9%2026-10-18 05:45
BetRivers🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.73%E -0.762%K -0.957%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 05:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 05:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 05:45
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 05:45
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 05:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.79%E -5.85%K -42.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 05:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.38%E -3.68%K -23.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.68%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 02:20
Neds🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.38%E -3.68%K -23.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.68%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 02:20
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.79%E -5.85%K -42.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.68%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 05:00
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.38%E -3.68%K -23.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.66%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 05:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.66%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 05:59
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.66%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 05:59
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.59%E -6.60%K -50.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 05:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.58%E -2.98%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.59%E -2.58%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 07:34
picklebet_au🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -4.38%E -3.68%K -23.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -11.59%E -2.58%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 05:59
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.18%E -4.39%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.56%E -3.08%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 05:45
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -1.97%E -1.61%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -14.54%E -3.34%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 05:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%0.2%2026-10-18 05:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%2.1%2026-10-18 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18%2.3%2026-10-18 05:55