Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks

2026-10-18 06:06 UTC — NBL

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 79.08%1.26fair odd

EV -5.10%

Edge -4.25%

Kelly -25.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.85%79.08%79.08%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.171.181.2086.96%85.16%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 20.92%4.78fair odd

EV +15.05%

Edge +2.74%

Kelly +3.34%

Growth +0.503%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.29%20.92%20.92%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.904.705.5022.73%20.41%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne United (Local): 79.08%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 20.92%. For Illawarra Hawks (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.50, producing a positive expected value of +15.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -9.06%E -7.87%K -60.37%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +15.05%E +2.74%K +3.34%G +0.503%	5.1%	2026-10-12 06:25
Neds🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -9.06%E -7.87%K -60.37%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +15.05%E +2.74%K +3.34%G +0.503%	5.1%	2026-10-12 06:29
TAB🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -8.27%E -7.13%K -51.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%	6.2%	2026-10-12 03:14
Betr (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.68%E -5.66%K -37.13%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -1.68%E -0.358%K -0.455%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-12 05:34
SportsBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.51%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-12 00:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.51%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-12 03:19
Betsson🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.68%E -5.66%K -37.13%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-12 06:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.