The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melbourne United v Cairns Taipans

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 09:30 UTC

Final: Melbourne United 95–107 Cairns Taipans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 80.51%1.24fair odd
EV -0.162%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.677%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.34%80.56%80.56%81.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.191.171.2486.21%84.26%85.47%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 19.49%5.13fair odd
EV +0.352%
Edge +0.068%
Kelly +0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.51%19.44%19.44%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.674.805.1525.64%21.43%20.83%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne United (Local): 80.51%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 19.49%. For Cairns Taipans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.352%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV +0.352%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 09:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -2.57%E -0.514%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 09:05
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.99%E -4.23%K -27.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 09:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 09:00
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 08:55
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 09:00
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.52%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.80%E -4.96%K -34.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -6.47%E -1.35%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 09:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.38%E -2.82%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -7.44%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 09:20
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -3.38%E -2.82%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -8.42%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 09:00
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -6.60%E -5.69%K -41.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -8.42%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 09:22
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -4.99%E -4.23%K -27.74%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -11.34%E -2.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 09:00
PlayUp🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.38%E -2.82%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.31%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 09:20
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -1.77%E -1.45%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -16.21%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 09:29
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -0.162%E -0.131%K -0.677%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -22.06%E -5.51%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 04:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -0.162%E -0.131%K -0.677%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -22.06%E -5.51%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 04:05
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -3.38%E -2.82%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -24.01%E -6.16%K -8.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15%0.1%2026-10-03 09:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15%0.1%2026-10-03 09:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%0.8%2026-10-03 09:25