The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melbourne United v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 09:36 UTC

Final: Melbourne United 95–97 Adelaide 36ers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne United (Local)

Prediction 67.88%1.47fair odd
EV -0.217%
Edge -0.148%
Kelly -0.462%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%67.89%67.97%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4774.63%71.60%71.68%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV +2.79%
Edge +0.870%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%32.11%32.03%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.942.923.2037.04%34.03%34.25%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne United (Local): 67.88%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 32.12%. For Adelaide 36ers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +2.79%E +0.870%K +1.27%G +0.035%5.3%2026-09-18 13:40
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +2.79%E +0.870%K +1.27%G +0.035%5.3%2026-09-18 13:39
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +2.79%E +0.870%K +1.27%G +0.035%5.3%2026-09-18 13:39
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +2.79%E +0.870%K +1.27%G +0.035%5.3%2026-09-18 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -9.04%E -6.75%K -26.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +2.79%E +0.870%K +1.27%G +0.035%5.9%2026-09-18 13:40
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.97%E -3.55%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.65%E -4.06%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.24%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:49
Coolbet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.65%E -4.06%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.24%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.43%EV -3.61%E -2.54%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.57%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 15:09
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 13:44
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:15
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.61%E -2.54%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.06%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 14:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -0.896%E -0.614%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 05:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.57%E -1.09%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 04:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.25%E -1.56%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 05:15
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.25%E -1.56%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 05:14
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.61%E -2.54%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -0.217%E -0.148%K -0.462%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -13.27%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-09-18 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%2.7%2026-09-18 14:05