The School of Odds
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Illawarra Hawks v Sydney Kings

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 08:30 UTC

Final: Illawarra Hawks 82–108 Sydney Kings

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illawarra Hawks (Local)

Prediction 28.31%3.53fair odd
EV +7.58%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +2.71%
Growth +0.205%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%28.34%28.57%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.373.303.8037.74%29.64%30.30%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Kings (Visit)

Prediction 71.69%1.39fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -9.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.30%71.66%71.43%75.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.301.301.3581.30%76.67%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illawarra Hawks (Local): 28.31%; Sydney Kings (Visit): 71.69%. For Illawarra Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
picklebet_au🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +7.58%E +1.99%K +2.71%G +0.205%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -10.39%E -8.31%K -41.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 08:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +6.17%E +1.64%K +2.24%G +0.138%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -9.67%E -7.68%K -37.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 06:05
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +6.17%E +1.64%K +2.24%G +0.138%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -9.67%E -7.68%K -37.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 06:05
SportsBet🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV +1.07%E +0.300%K +0.416%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -6.80%E -5.23%K -22.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-22 08:24
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.503%E +0.142%K +0.197%G +0.001%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.80%E -5.23%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 08:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.912%E -0.261%K -0.365%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.80%E -5.23%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 06:26
TAB🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.912%E -0.261%K -0.365%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.80%E -5.23%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 08:25
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV -2.89%E -0.844%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-22 08:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.09%E -4.65%K -19.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 08:20
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 04:20
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.22%E -2.38%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 08:09
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.94%E -2.94%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 08:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.94%E -2.94%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 08:25
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.94%E -2.94%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.65%E -3.50%K -14.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 08:25
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.80%E -5.23%K -22.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 08:29
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -8.24%E -6.44%K -29.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 08:15
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.22%E -2.38%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 04:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.70%EV -24.98%E -9.43%K -15.14%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 68.30%EV -11.82%E -9.61%K -51.40%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-22 08:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43%0.3%2026-10-22 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43%0.3%2026-10-22 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43%0.3%2026-10-22 08:20