Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans

2026-10-11 06:06 UTC — NBL

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illawarra Hawks (Local)

Prediction 48.05%2.08fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%48.05%48.16%49.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.961.971.9852.91%51.12%50.76%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 51.95%1.93fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.53%51.95%51.84%52.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.831.8557.14%54.79%54.64%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Illawarra Hawks (Local): 48.05%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 51.95%. For Cairns Taipans (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.85, with an expected value of -3.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.85%E -2.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.85%E -2.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -4.85%E -2.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.85%E -2.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.33%E -2.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.33%E -2.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.33%E -2.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.33%E -2.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.33%E -2.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.98%E -3.30%K -7.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -5.81%E -2.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.29%E -3.23%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.29%E -3.23%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.29%E -3.23%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:44
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -7.74%E -4.03%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.22%E -4.30%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Right🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -9.18%E -4.86%K -10.31%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-10-10 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-10-10 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-10-10 19:30